Emma Raducanu closing in on return to top ten of alternative tennis rankings

Emma Raducanu’s stuttering season suffered a major setback with her comprehensive defeat in the opening the Madrid Open, but there have been real signs of progress for the 2021 US Open champion in recent months. Raducanu revealed that she felt “exhausted” during a straight-sets defeat to Argentinian qualifier Maria Lourdes Carle in Madrid, with the British star beaten 6-2 6-2 after she accepted a wildcard into the WTA 1000 tournament.

Playing with strapping around the front of her left knee, Raducanu made a host of unforced errors and saw her serve broken six times. “I would say the last few weeks have been a lot,” said the former world No 10. “I think from the performance today it was very clear that mentally and emotionally I was exhausted. “I was trying to push through and I was just unable to push through today. I guess the sport is just pretty brutal.”

It was a disappointing performance after a resurgence that saw her win two matches for Great Britain in their Billie Jean King Cup win in France and she then reached the last eight at the Stuttgart Open, losing against world No 1 Iga Swiatek in a competitive two-set encounter. Those encouraging displays meant her display in Madrid was a big setback, with her live WTA ranking currently standing at a lowly No 211.

She is unlikely to get a wildcard into the French Open and may opt against playing qualifying for the second Grand Slam of the year, as she has entered the W500 Strasbourg tournament in the same week as Roland-Garros qualifying. Yet despite her indifferent form in 2024, Raducanu has made a huge leap in the URT Sport ranking endorsed by men’s world No 1 Novak Djokovic.

The UTR Rating, also known as the Universal Tennis Rating, was created by UTR Sports (formerly known as Universal Tennis) as a global rating system that promotes fair and competitive play across the tennis world. It’s more just than a ranking system as all players, regardless of age, gender, geography, or skill level, are rated on the same scale between 1.00 and 16.50 based on actual match results.

For each match, the algorithm calculates a match rating and a match weight for each player. A player’s UTR Rating is the weighted average of up to 30 of their most recent match ratings. Only matches within the last 12 months count toward a player’s UTR. Two factors are considered when calculating the match rating; the first factor is the UTR Rating difference between opponents and the second is the competitiveness of the match, as determined by the percentage of total games won.

Given the UTR Rating difference, the algorithm expects a certain percentage of total games won.
The player who performs better than the algorithm’s expectation will see their match rating go up while the other player’s match rating will go down. When one player’s match rating increases, the other player’s match rating decreases by the same amount. It is a very different system compared to the rolling 52-week rating system used by the ATP Tour and WTA Tour, which takes into account performances from u to 12 months earlier.

So the UTR Rating is viewed as more reflective of current form, with Raducanu’s recent wins against opponents ranked much higher than her in the WTA Rankings contributing to her rise in the alternative ranking list. Raducanu is up to No 12 in the UTR Rating and may only need a couple of wins against higher-ranking opponents to break into the top ten. Iga Swiatek is top of the UTR Ratings, as she is in the WTA list, with Elena Rybakina in second place and Aryna Sabalenka in third position.

Two-time Grand Slam champion Victoria Azarenka is down at No 27 in the WTA Rankings, but she is at No 4 in the UTR Rating after some encouraging results on US hard courts, one ahead of the in-form Danielle Collins. Meanwhile, America’s Coco Gauff is down at No 7 on the UTR list even though she is closing in on the No 2 position in the WTA Rankings.

The debate over whether Azarenka and Raducanu deserve such a lofty ranking provides an interesting talking point, but it is clear that this ratings system has identified an encouraging upward trend for both players heading into a phase of the tennis year that could see both make huge leaps up the tennis ladder.